telling it like it is

18
Nov

That's how the fourth and final report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was characterized by the New York Times:

The panel’s fourth and final report summarized and integrated the most significant findings of three sections of a climate-science review that were released between January and April. Because the data had not previously been reviewed as a whole, scientists said the synthesized report was more explicit, creating new emphasis and alarm.

The first section of the review had covered climate trends; the second, the world’s ability to adapt to a warming planet; the third, strategies for reducing carbon emissions. With their mission concluded, the hundreds of IPCC scientists spoke more freely than they had previously…

Saturday’s synthesis report was reviewed and approved by delegates from 130 nations gathered here this week. But unlike the earlier reviews, in which governments had insisted on changes that diluted the reports’ impact, this time scientists and environmental groups said there had been no major dilution of the data.

Indeed, IPCC delegate's comments painted a stark picture of the future.

Martin Parry, a British climate expert who was co-chairman of the delegation that wrote the second report said: "The sense of urgency when you put these pieces together is new and striking. I’ve come out of this process more pessimistic about the possibilities than I thought I would.”

Rajendra Pachauri, a scientist and economist who heads the IPCC added: “If there’s no action before 2012, that’s too late. What we do in the next two to three years will determine our future. This is the defining moment.”

Jeffrey D. Sachs, director of Columbia University’s Earth Institute said: “It’s extremely clear and is very explicit that the cost of inaction will be huge compared to the cost of action. We can’t afford to wait for some perfect accord to replace Kyoto, for some grand agreement. We can’t afford to spend years bickering about it. We need to start acting now.”

One new element of this fourth report are these statements of reasons for concern:

  • There is new and stronger evidence of observed impacts of climate change on unique and vulnerable systems (such as polar and high mountain communities and ecosystems) with increasing levels of adverse impacts as temperatures increase even further.
  • There is now higher confidence in the projected increases in droughts, heatwaves and floods as well as their adverse impacts.
  • There are sharp differences across regions and those in the weakest economic position are often the most vulnerable to climate change.
  • There is high confidence that global warming over many centuries would lead to a sea level rise much larger than that observed in the 20th century, with the loss of coastal areas and associated impacts.

With the next meeting of world energy ministers coming up in Bali in just a couple of weeks, the IPCC's call to action is clear. As U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon stated:  "climate change is the defining challenge of our age."

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